I talked to Dane today and he gave me a lot of points for my predictions; probably more than I deserve. It has now been 6 months, and before I make another batch of iPad 3 predictions, I want to follow up on my last set.
Prediction1: “Tomorrow, the stock will take a hit.” Correct. Shares were down three dollars the following day, but the stock ended the week up $10 from the dip.
Prediction 2: The press event. Fail. Apple didn’t get to their holiday lineup announcement until October 4, the day before Steve Jobs actually passed away.
Prediction 3: “The stock will climb for the rest of the year.” Correct. There were some pretty crazy swings and Apple’s highest price wasn’t at the end of the year. However, it ended 2011 with an impressive price of $405, up 7.6% from the day of Steve’s resignation.
Prediction 4: iPhone 5 timing. Fail. Timing was wrong. The iPhone 5 was actually called the 4S and didn’t get released until October 14.
Prediction 5: “3 million during opening weekend.” Correct. They did sell 3 million. Then they sold 1 million more.
Prediction 6: Best Holiday quarter ever. Right in the ways that matter. The record were broken, in all categories except iPod. But the huge EPS beat makes up for it.
Prediction 7: New iPad. Almost nailed it. I was close enough to the 6 month mark to be satisfied. Now the question is, how stupid will it make it look competing tablets. Stay tuned for the answer to that.
Bonus Prediction 8: AAPL at $550 in Aug 2012. Undershot. We will have to wait and see what happens, but as of this writing, Apple is at $533 and has been on a relentless rise. I doubt it will be lower than $550 by August. But They have made it to most valuable company.